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Bertan's Financial Market Blog

Bertan's Market Review And Preview (11 April 2020)

4/11/2020

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Market Review
The past week has been the strongest so far since the outbreak of the corona crisis. Equity markets gained an average return of 10% on a weekly basis, and without major setbacks. This let to hope that the lows of the crisis have already been left behind. One should be careful with such conclusions, however, since the great crises in history are repeated from interim bear market rallies.
For example, from 2000 to September 2001 the DAX fell from 8000 to below 4000, recovered by 40% to 5500 points within 6 months, but then fell again by more than 50% to its final low of around 2200 points by March 2003. Regionally, the United States was the most profitable last week, followed by Europe and Asia. Over a month, the US is even slightly positive, while Europe and Asia follow in places with slightly negative values.

Market Preview
The past week has brought little new knowledge about the weeks ahead. The growth rate of new infections is fortunately declining in most European countries. It appears that the curve is slowly leveling off, similar to that in South Korea or China before. The next days and weeks will bring clarity.
A temporary equilibrium appears to be forming in the markets, with most stock indices having passed their preliminary lows and are on the way up. It remains to be seen whether this branch is strong enough to push the markets further up, whether it slowly gives way again or even breaks off. The possible triggers for the markets are the same, positive news such as a major advance in a vaccine or therapy can accelerate the markets upward, while deterioration in infection and deaths, or especially a surprising bankruptcy of a larger company, can accelerate the downturn.
According to the article by Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt it seems that there must be doubt about the development of a vaccine. So far, it has never been possible to develop a vaccine against a coronavirus.

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    Bertan Gueler, CFA

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  • Über
    • über Systinvest
    • Investmentphilosophie
  • Blog
  • Crash Weltkarte
  • Crash Protection
    • Letzter Stand
    • Philosophie
    • Crashphasen Charakteristika
    • Beispiele Marktrisiko
    • Backtests Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Hebel +3faches Risikomanagement
    • Hebel Multistrategien
    • Marktzyklen offensiv gehebelt
    • Marktzyklen
    • Aktienwertselektion mit System
    • Alpha+Beta+Crash Risk Control
  • Ratgeber
    • Wie teuer sollte ein ETF oder Fonds sein?
    • Kann man mit Aktien reich werden?
    • Wie kann man sich vor Inflation schützen?
    • Crash am Aktienmarkt - Wieviel kann man verlieren?
    • Wie riskant sind Aktiensparpläne wirklich?
  • Tools
    • Sparplanrechner
    • Annuitätenrechner
  • Legenden
    • Warren Buffet
    • Edward O. Thorp
    • James Simons
    • "Pitbull" Marty Schwartz
    • Stanley Druckenmiller
  • Analysen
    • Altersvorsorge >
      • Inflation und Kaufkraftverlust
      • Inflationsschutz - Aktien oder Gold?
      • Generationen Altersvorsorge
      • Sparplanvergleich Aktien/Lebensversicherung >
        • Berechnungsannahmen
        • Ohne Steuerbetrachtung
        • Effekt Abgeltungssteuer
        • Effekt Inflation
    • Anlagestrategien >
      • Vola und Sharpe Ratio
      • Aktien mit Vola 2%
      • Momentum
    • Historische Vergleiche >
      • DAX 2016
      • DAX vs S&P 500
  • About
    • About systinvest
    • Investment philosophy
  • Blog
  • Crash World Map
  • Crash Protection
    • Latest Status
    • Philosophy
    • Crashperiod Characteristics
    • Examples Market Risk
    • Backtest Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Leverage +3x Risk Management
    • Leverage Multistrategies
    • Marketcycles leveraged dynamically
    • Marketcycles
    • Systematic Stockpicking
    • Alpha + Beta + Crash Risk Control
  • Good to Know
    • How much should a fund cost?
    • Can you get rich with stocks?
    • How to protect against inflation?
    • Stock Market Crashs - How much can you lose?
    • Are stock saving plans really risky?
  • Tools
    • Savings Plan Calculator
    • Annuity Calculator
  • Analyses
    • Pension >
      • Inflation and Purchasing Power
      • Inflation protection - Stocks or Gold?
      • Cross-Generational Pension Plan
    • Investment Strategies >
      • Vola and Sharpe Ratio
      • Equity with 2% Vola
      • Momentum-en
    • Historical Backtests >
      • DAX 2016-en
      • S&P 500 vs DAX