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Bertan's Financial Market Blog

Bertan's Market Review And Preview (9 May 2020)

5/9/2020

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Market Review
The stock markets around the world have had another positive week. The signs that the panic is completely gone are increasing. This is despite the fact that economic data crosses unprecedented levels (applications for unemployment benefit USA, Chart 1). The corona crisis remains the dominant issue and a solution still seems a long way off. Nevertheless, the familiarization effect has set in among market participants, so that events such as the continuing high death rates in many countries (e.g. France, Italy and Spain with over 10%) and a sudden rapid increase in the numbers in Singapore no longer have any price relevance. As a result of the easing decided by local countries, there is still no negative trend in the number of new infections. In Germany, even the upcoming reopening of the first soccer league, Bundesliga, is pending.
The stock markets were able to continue the almost unabated success of the past few weeks. Some of the strongest markets come from the United States, the country most affected by the corona virus. The US indices rose 4-8% on a weekly basis. In Europe the picture is mixed, on average there is a slight gain of approx. +1%. The UK and medium-sized German companies from the MDAX are particularly strong at +4%. The southern European countries, on the other hand, tend to be neutral to slightly negative. The picture is mixed in Asia too. While Southeast Asia is slightly negative, India is losing -5% and lies therefore opposite compared to the global trend. Japan, China and Australia, on the other hand, are strong Asian markets with 4-8% gains in the past week.


Market Preview
he crash protection risk model provides further signs of relaxation. Even if the green signal on a daily basis has not yet been confirmed, this is becoming more and more likely. In the upcoming week, the global risk status could change from red to yellow. The positive signal is based equally on the regions of America, Europe and Asia.
Despite a temporary all-clear, investors should continue to act very carefully in the current environment. A build-up of the equity quota can be accompanied by put hedges to protect against the scenario of sudden panic losses. In my opinion, there are still many negative records and black swans slumbering in this market


chart 1: jobless claims USA
source: tradingeconomics.com
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    Bertan Gueler, CFA

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  • Über
    • über Systinvest
    • Investmentphilosophie
  • Blog
  • Crash Weltkarte
  • Crash Protection
    • Letzter Stand
    • Philosophie
    • Crashphasen Charakteristika
    • Beispiele Marktrisiko
    • Backtests Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Hebel +3faches Risikomanagement
    • Hebel Multistrategien
    • Marktzyklen offensiv gehebelt
    • Marktzyklen
    • Aktienwertselektion mit System
    • Alpha+Beta+Crash Risk Control
  • Ratgeber
    • Wie teuer sollte ein ETF oder Fonds sein?
    • Kann man mit Aktien reich werden?
    • Wie kann man sich vor Inflation schützen?
    • Crash am Aktienmarkt - Wieviel kann man verlieren?
    • Wie riskant sind Aktiensparpläne wirklich?
  • Tools
    • Sparplanrechner
    • Annuitätenrechner
  • Legenden
    • Warren Buffet
    • Edward O. Thorp
    • James Simons
    • "Pitbull" Marty Schwartz
    • Stanley Druckenmiller
  • Analysen
    • Altersvorsorge >
      • Inflation und Kaufkraftverlust
      • Inflationsschutz - Aktien oder Gold?
      • Generationen Altersvorsorge
      • Sparplanvergleich Aktien/Lebensversicherung >
        • Berechnungsannahmen
        • Ohne Steuerbetrachtung
        • Effekt Abgeltungssteuer
        • Effekt Inflation
    • Anlagestrategien >
      • Vola und Sharpe Ratio
      • Aktien mit Vola 2%
      • Momentum
    • Historische Vergleiche >
      • DAX 2016
      • DAX vs S&P 500
  • About
    • About systinvest
    • Investment philosophy
  • Blog
  • Crash World Map
  • Crash Protection
    • Latest Status
    • Philosophy
    • Crashperiod Characteristics
    • Examples Market Risk
    • Backtest Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Leverage +3x Risk Management
    • Leverage Multistrategies
    • Marketcycles leveraged dynamically
    • Marketcycles
    • Systematic Stockpicking
    • Alpha + Beta + Crash Risk Control
  • Good to Know
    • How much should a fund cost?
    • Can you get rich with stocks?
    • How to protect against inflation?
    • Stock Market Crashs - How much can you lose?
    • Are stock saving plans really risky?
  • Tools
    • Savings Plan Calculator
    • Annuity Calculator
  • Analyses
    • Pension >
      • Inflation and Purchasing Power
      • Inflation protection - Stocks or Gold?
      • Cross-Generational Pension Plan
    • Investment Strategies >
      • Vola and Sharpe Ratio
      • Equity with 2% Vola
      • Momentum-en
    • Historical Backtests >
      • DAX 2016-en
      • S&P 500 vs DAX