SYSTINVEST
  • Über
    • über Systinvest
    • Investmentphilosophie
  • Blog
  • Crash Weltkarte
  • Crash Protection
    • Letzter Stand
    • Philosophie
    • Crashphasen Charakteristika
    • Beispiele Marktrisiko
    • Backtests Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Hebel +3faches Risikomanagement
    • Hebel Multistrategien
    • Marktzyklen offensiv gehebelt
    • Marktzyklen
    • Aktienwertselektion mit System
    • Alpha+Beta+Crash Risk Control
  • Ratgeber
    • Wie teuer sollte ein ETF oder Fonds sein?
    • Kann man mit Aktien reich werden?
    • Wie kann man sich vor Inflation schützen?
    • Crash am Aktienmarkt - Wieviel kann man verlieren?
    • Wie riskant sind Aktiensparpläne wirklich?
  • Tools
    • Sparplanrechner
    • Annuitätenrechner
  • Legenden
    • Warren Buffet
    • Edward O. Thorp
    • James Simons
    • "Pitbull" Marty Schwartz
    • Stanley Druckenmiller
  • Analysen
    • Altersvorsorge >
      • Inflation und Kaufkraftverlust
      • Inflationsschutz - Aktien oder Gold?
      • Generationen Altersvorsorge
      • Sparplanvergleich Aktien/Lebensversicherung >
        • Berechnungsannahmen
        • Ohne Steuerbetrachtung
        • Effekt Abgeltungssteuer
        • Effekt Inflation
    • Anlagestrategien >
      • Vola und Sharpe Ratio
      • Aktien mit Vola 2%
      • Momentum
    • Historische Vergleiche >
      • DAX 2016
      • DAX vs S&P 500
  • About
    • About systinvest
    • Investment philosophy
  • Blog
  • Crash World Map
  • Crash Protection
    • Latest Status
    • Philosophy
    • Crashperiod Characteristics
    • Examples Market Risk
    • Backtest Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Leverage +3x Risk Management
    • Leverage Multistrategies
    • Marketcycles leveraged dynamically
    • Marketcycles
    • Systematic Stockpicking
    • Alpha + Beta + Crash Risk Control
  • Good to Know
    • How much should a fund cost?
    • Can you get rich with stocks?
    • How to protect against inflation?
    • Stock Market Crashs - How much can you lose?
    • Are stock saving plans really risky?
  • Tools
    • Savings Plan Calculator
    • Annuity Calculator
  • Analyses
    • Pension >
      • Inflation and Purchasing Power
      • Inflation protection - Stocks or Gold?
      • Cross-Generational Pension Plan
    • Investment Strategies >
      • Vola and Sharpe Ratio
      • Equity with 2% Vola
      • Momentum-en
    • Historical Backtests >
      • DAX 2016-en
      • S&P 500 vs DAX

Bertan's Financial Market Blog

Bertan's Market Review And Preview (12 June 2020)

6/12/2020

0 Comments

 
Market Review
In the past few weeks, global equity markets have seen only one direction - back to the pre-Corona all-time highs. The American technology index Nasdaq 100 has already achieved this goal and set new all-time highs.

Market participants and economists celebrated the end of reports of historical negative records. According to record-high unemployment data, an increase in the number of employees has recently been reported in the USA. The market participants also believed that the almighty central banks, especially the FED, were behind them. But it was precisely this FED that brought the markets back out of their delirium by merely promising to keep the current interest rate level and no cuts. The market reacted disappointed to the statement by the Fed, after which the markets worldwide went down by more than -5%.

It must therefore be noted that the price recovery since the low of the corona crisis has been largely driven by the hope that central banks will intervene. This explains the high discrepancy that has arisen between economic reality, the economic outlook and the course of the financial markets. All in all, a dangerous mixture, especially when you consider the increasing carelessness in dealing with the corona virus.

Market Preview
It remains that a new wave of infections has to be considered at all times. The fact that the virus has already spread to the population can make the second wave far worse in speed and scale than the first wave. The second wave was by far the more dangerous during the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1920.

"The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much more deadly than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much more deadly form. October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic."

Robert Kenner (18 Jan 2010). "Influenza 1918". American Experience. Season 10. Episode 5. PBS. WGBH. Transcript
The fact that the first wave mainly affected older people and people with previous illnesses and then became much more dangerous due to mutation in the second wave should ring the alarm bells. It is to be hoped that such a mutation is the exception and that the events of 1918 will not be repeated.

The crash protection risk model continues to give the all-clear for the most part. The USA is still green, the signal worldwide is neutral to positive. A complete return to 100% green status would have been possible, but was prevented for the time being by the last price losses. Thus, the risk outlook remains cautiously optimistic according to the model, but the risk of renewed panic seems low.

The potential for rapidly increasing markets in the short term is not very large. After the fastest 30% price drop in history, the central banks also helped the fastest recovery in history. The most serious economic effects seem to be behind us, at least according to the consensus of economists and market participants. We may face volatile sideways markets in the coming weeks and months. A further, rapidly emerging economic recovery and a return to normality could leave the markets a little more open. However, a rapid rise in the number of infections in developed countries could cause the markets to crash again. In this case, the majority of investors should expect the central banks to intervene again quickly, making a panic comparable to that in February and March unlikely. Unless the corona virus mutates ...

0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Author

    Bertan Gueler, CFA

    Archives

    November 2022
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020

    Categories

    All
    Corona Virus
    Market Comment

    RSS Feed

Content
contact@systinvest.com
ÜBER
systinvest.com | Investmentphilosophie
BLOG
CRASH WELTKARTE
CRASH PROTECTION
Letzter Stand | Philosophie | Crashphasen Charakteristika | Beispiele Marktrisiko | Backtests
WIKIFOLIOS
RATGEBER
TOOLS
LEGENDEN
ANALYSEN
​​Altersvorsorge | Anlagestrategien | Historische Vergleiche
KRYPTO
DISCLAIMER
DATENSCHUTZERKLÄRUNG
IMPRESSUM
Content
ABOUT
systinvest.com | Investment Philosophy
BLOG
CRASH WORLD MAP
CRASH PROTECTION
Latest Status | Philosophy | Crashperiod Characteristics | Examples Market Risk | Backtests
WIKIFOLIOS
GOOD TO KNOW
TOOLS
ANALYSES
Pension | Investment Strategies |Historical Backtests
CRYPTO
DISCLAIMER
DATENSCHUTZERKLÄRUNG
IMPRESSUM
  • Über
    • über Systinvest
    • Investmentphilosophie
  • Blog
  • Crash Weltkarte
  • Crash Protection
    • Letzter Stand
    • Philosophie
    • Crashphasen Charakteristika
    • Beispiele Marktrisiko
    • Backtests Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Hebel +3faches Risikomanagement
    • Hebel Multistrategien
    • Marktzyklen offensiv gehebelt
    • Marktzyklen
    • Aktienwertselektion mit System
    • Alpha+Beta+Crash Risk Control
  • Ratgeber
    • Wie teuer sollte ein ETF oder Fonds sein?
    • Kann man mit Aktien reich werden?
    • Wie kann man sich vor Inflation schützen?
    • Crash am Aktienmarkt - Wieviel kann man verlieren?
    • Wie riskant sind Aktiensparpläne wirklich?
  • Tools
    • Sparplanrechner
    • Annuitätenrechner
  • Legenden
    • Warren Buffet
    • Edward O. Thorp
    • James Simons
    • "Pitbull" Marty Schwartz
    • Stanley Druckenmiller
  • Analysen
    • Altersvorsorge >
      • Inflation und Kaufkraftverlust
      • Inflationsschutz - Aktien oder Gold?
      • Generationen Altersvorsorge
      • Sparplanvergleich Aktien/Lebensversicherung >
        • Berechnungsannahmen
        • Ohne Steuerbetrachtung
        • Effekt Abgeltungssteuer
        • Effekt Inflation
    • Anlagestrategien >
      • Vola und Sharpe Ratio
      • Aktien mit Vola 2%
      • Momentum
    • Historische Vergleiche >
      • DAX 2016
      • DAX vs S&P 500
  • About
    • About systinvest
    • Investment philosophy
  • Blog
  • Crash World Map
  • Crash Protection
    • Latest Status
    • Philosophy
    • Crashperiod Characteristics
    • Examples Market Risk
    • Backtest Crash Protection
  • wikifolios
    • Leverage +3x Risk Management
    • Leverage Multistrategies
    • Marketcycles leveraged dynamically
    • Marketcycles
    • Systematic Stockpicking
    • Alpha + Beta + Crash Risk Control
  • Good to Know
    • How much should a fund cost?
    • Can you get rich with stocks?
    • How to protect against inflation?
    • Stock Market Crashs - How much can you lose?
    • Are stock saving plans really risky?
  • Tools
    • Savings Plan Calculator
    • Annuity Calculator
  • Analyses
    • Pension >
      • Inflation and Purchasing Power
      • Inflation protection - Stocks or Gold?
      • Cross-Generational Pension Plan
    • Investment Strategies >
      • Vola and Sharpe Ratio
      • Equity with 2% Vola
      • Momentum-en
    • Historical Backtests >
      • DAX 2016-en
      • S&P 500 vs DAX